The British Open returns to Strokes in Margate this weekend for I believe the 4th time in its history. A tough challenge for the best of players so who does the PP think will be shining on the greens and who will see their challenge cruelly die on the legendary Heartbreak Ridge?
With a strong field confirmed for the event including a powerhouse of International competitors it will be a monumental scrap to secure a place in the top 18 for the final round of the weekend.
So who will make it?
I predict, In no particular order, the following will be contesting the last round:
- Marc Chapman
- Johan Ahlander
- Michael Smith
- Jouni Valkjärvi
- Sean Homer
- Mattias Ståhl
- Andy Exall
- Adam Kelly
- James Rutherford
- Björn Dinau
- Tony Kelly
- John McIver
- Petri Tossavainen
- Karsten Hein
- Torgny Kjellström
- Mikael Karlsson
- Maths Svensson
- Lutz Brune
8 Brits and 10 Internationals. Some big names failing to make it but c'est la vie. I am sure there are players who are convinced they will be in the mix come Sunday afternoon who are not on the 18 above - time will tell if PP is right or wrong.
So, next up, will there be a new course record at the weekend? 30 has been shot twice and there have been numerous 31's and 32's over the years. But sub 30? Now there is a challenge. 7 aces and no dropped shots. Or 8 aces and a 3 and so on and so forth. Sounds easy but the best of the best have played the course and no-one has managed it yet. There have been players getting very close... and there are the requisite number of aceable holes on the course. Get through 7, 8 and 11 without dropping a shot and hitting the final seven holes 3 under or better and the course record is possible.
So will it go?
I think finally it will. And perhaps we will see 2 or 3 sub 30's by the end of the event.
Who will get it?
3 names spring to mind.
1) Michael Smith - the Terminator of minigolf. If he can take on the course rather than let it boss him, then yes, Smith is the man to do it
2) Adam Kelly - The young master who recently shot the lowest ever round by a UK minigolfer with a 20 on Eternite. Can't see it happening consistently but the 'lightning in a bottle' round could come from Kelly Jr.
3) Björn Dinau - the classiest player in the field. Has unfinished business with Strokes so my money is on Mr Dinau to be the first (and maybe even the only) one to shoot this milestone.
And finally.
Who will win?
After the epic top 5 UK players clean sweep result last year I do not think we will see any repeat in 2012. Can see one, possibly 2 Brits in the top 5 but I think it will be business as usual again with the Internationals taking the win this year.
And although the returning 'Strokes' champions will be close - step forward Ståhl, Kjellström and Valkjärvi - I think this year we will see a new British Open Champion. The peoples favourite...
Mr Björn Dinau
A popular winner and an all round nice guy.
Until next time.
PP.
It's always important to do a spot of self reflection these days - after all it's not easy being the premier minigolf predictor in the virtual world - and so I thought it would be interesting to see how accurate PP's predictions were for the Doubles event in the Midlands.
The results have been posted on line (http://www.minigolf.org.uk/joomla/index.php?option=com_eventlist&view=details&id=89&Itemid=56) so here we go.
Overall top 4 places:
Predictions / Actual
4th - May the Force Be With Who / 9th
3rd - Oxbridge Morons / 5th
2nd - Booze Brothers / 4th
1st - Jiff-Free / 2nd
Not a bad effort, surprisingly the only one wide of the mark was the reigning (as they were) champions who appear to have crashed out in the group stages with little more than a whimper, finally finding form (i.e. a win) when they were already dead in the water. Clearly the expectations of defending the title saw the previously unbeatable pairing choke when it really mattered.
So what about the individual team predictions I hear you ask? Lets have a look at how accurate PP was in my pre-event musings...
1) MAY THE FORCE BE WITH WHO - Chris Harding & Marc Chapman - the reigning champions having taken the title for the past 2 years. Can they do it again? Probably. Will they? No.
100% accurate. They didn't win. 1 out of 1
2) WILSON - Oliver Florence & Richard Skeggs. Last years runners up were the surprise package of the event but I can't see them repeating this in 2012... remains to be seen if Skeggs can keep himself and the Machine focused long enough to win this weekend.
Finished 8th. After topping their group it all went wrong. And the latest reports from the camp indicate that the Gentle Touch has retired from minigolf. Tis a cruel game. Another accurate prediction. 2 for 2
3) CASUAL FORCE - Sean Homer & Marion Homer. Can they take the crown? It will take more than a degree of luck for this given the Presidents form this year.
Proved to be the case. Crept through the group but luck clearly deserted them. Finished 6th. Another winner. 3 for 3
4) TEAM SQONKEY - Richard Gottfried & Scott Lancley. If they get a tough group then will probably be trawling the bottom half of the event for scraps.
Finished 7th. Got through their group well but not a tough ask by the look of things. But then didn't win again until the last match. Did better than predicted. Oh well. 3 for 4 still not too bad.
5) JIFF-FREE - Seth Thomas & Chris Smith. Could go all the way.
They did. But fell at the final hurdle to finish 2nd. Accurate again. 4 from 5.
6) TEAM SPLODGE - Marina Breeden & Adam Breeden. Could cause an upset or two if they can make the most of home advantage.
They didn't. Came 14th with just 1 win in their 5th match. Got that one wrong. 4 from 6.
7) THE BOOZE BROTHERS - Brad Shepherd & Chris Jones. Will be tough to beat if Shepherd, a proven Matchplay contender, can keep his game together.
Finished 4th. Powered through the group. Took out the reigning champions. Took out the fancied number 1 & 2 pairing in the quarters and then fell to the eventual winners. Were a tough team. Accurate again i'd say. 5 from 7.
8) GEMINI - Steve Sturdy & Ruth Burke. Can't see them troubling the top slots.
They didn't. Finished 12th courtesy of an easy quarter final draw having lost 3 out of 3 in the group. Another spot on prediction. 6 from 8.
9) WILLFRED - Will Donnelly & Freddie Blackburn-Shaw. Will either be pushing for a top 5 finish or perhaps more likely will crash and burn in the group stages.
They came 15th but unfair to say they crashed and burnt. Finished their group with 6 points and failed to go into the top half of the KO's on stroke difference. Clearly had stuffing knocked out of them by this and didn't win again until the final match. Think I got this one wrong. 6 from 9.
10) PERFECT FOR SHAW - Alex Pragnell & Alastair Shaw. They have a chance of taking a scalp or two.
Finished 13th. Had a tough group and then drew the bruised ex champs in the quarter finals. Won the last 2 matches to claim a decent finish. So I will give myself this one! 7 from 10.
11) YOU'VE BEEN NICKTED - John McIver & Nick Chitty. See this power pair fail to make the top 8.
Won the event. About as wrong a prediction as you can get. 7 from 11.
12) WE'AR THE LADS - John Moore & Dave Donnelly. I think they may do well.
They did. Came 3rd. Another one for the PP. 8 from 12.
13) WEIR BIN YO FROM - Owen Johnson & Paul Johnson. Have a chance of not coming last. If it all kicks off during a match then they may as well concede the points straightaway.
They came last. 9 from 13.
14) OXBRIDGE MORONS - Michael Smith & James Rutherford. I fear that the only thing that will drown out the desperation in these two will be the tears and tantrums as 2012 proves to be yet another nail in the Doubles coffin of Rutherford and Smith.
Breezed through the group then lost at first knockout stage. Came 5th. I'll claim this one as well. 10 from 14.
15) THE SNOOZE BROTHERS - Alan Norman & Gareth Holmes. Their slow play could be their main weapon as the matches drag on in the Midlands sun.
Won 1 match in the group but failed to make top 2. Finished 10th with strong 2nd half of the event. But not really much to claim as an accurate prediction. 10 from 15.
And finally.
16) REAL ALE MADRID - Jam Trubridge & Rob Dodd. It will be a tough ask to see them push into the top half of the event. Their name is ultimately a lot better than they are.
Finished 11th. Name better than them. Chalk it up. 11 from 16.
So a grand total of close to 70% accuracy.
Not bad from a matchplay event with a random draw.
Roll on the British Open...
Until then.
PP
THE BRITISH DOUBLES CHAMPIONSHIP
First of all, a look at the teams that are still intact from last years event:
1) MAY THE FORCE BE WITH WHO - Chris Harding & Marc Chapman - the reigning champions having taken the title for the past 2 years. Can they do it again? Probably. Will they? No.
2) WILSON - Oliver Florence & Richard Skeggs. Last years runners up were the surprise package of the event but I can't see them repeating this in 2012. Florence has been 'turned' by the lure of Worm Charming and it remains to be seen if Skeggs can keep himself and the Machine focused long enough to win this weekend.
3) CASUAL FORCE - Sean Homer & Marion Homer. The longest running pair in the Doubles event returning for the fifth year in a row. If a photo hitting the net this week is accurate It would appear that the better half of the pairing has now been given the captains armband. Can Lady Homer take the pair to the elusive crown? It will take more than a degree of luck for this given the Presidents form this year.
4) TEAM SQONKEY - Richard Gottfried & Scott Lancley. Failed to live up to their own hype last year with a poor knockout stage. A no-show and a dismal finish in the recent Matchplay Championship doesn't bode well for the returning Midlands/Kent hybrid. If they get a tough group then will probably be trawling the bottom half of the event for scraps.
5) JIFF-FREE - Seth Thomas & Chris Smith. The name has changed (so long the Green Warriors) and this may well prove enough to see the Cambridgeshire Minigolf club duo make a charge for the title in 2012. Thomas, fresh from his debut at Porto will have a point to prove given recent disappointments and Smith Sr has shown some real form in Matchplay over the last 12 months. Could go all the way.
6) TEAM SPLODGE - Marina Breeden & Adam Breeden. The local pairing. Had a tough debut in 2011 being drawn in the same group as CF and MTFBWW and ended in the bottom half of the drawn for the Knockout stages. No doubt have been hitting the greens of Dorridge since their only other event this year in January so could cause an upset or two if they can make the most of home advantage.
7) THE BOOZE BROTHERS - Brad Shepherd & Chris Jones. Back together again after a less than successful break in 2011. The third married couple in the returning teams, will be tough to beat if Shepherd, a proven Matchplay contender, can keep his game together.
So with 7 returning pairs we have the final 9 'new' partnerships:
8) GEMINI - Steve Sturdy & Ruth Burke. Both played well at the Club Championships in 2011 at Dorridge so could be a decent bet for a couple of wins. But can't see them troubling the top slots.
9) WILLFRED - Will Donnelly & Freddie Blackburn-Shaw. Will either be pushing for a top 5 finish or perhaps more likely will crash and burn in the group stages. If they can manage to unsettle (i.e. annoy) their opponents with their constant chatter then could well cause an upset or two (if only to the sanity of those playing against them).
10) PERFECT FOR SHAW - Alex Pragnell & Alastair Shaw. A great name. Not sure there's much more to say that hasn't already been said. Alastair proved to be a tough matchplay player in the recent 2012 championships so the pairing has that going for them. Alex will need to focus better than he has shown in recent events or this could be a nightmare for both players. However if Alastair takes control of the pairing then they have a chance of taking a scalp or two.
11) YOU'VE BEEN NICKTED - John McIver & Nick Chitty. A late pairing with an even later name (finally appeared on line earlier today). The anticipated return of the ex-UK number 1 hasn't materialised and although it will be disappointing to miss his reaction to the new GRRRRR king , the reality is that the pairing is stronger with the arrival of Chitty. If slow play is not penalised then they could have a chance but the glory days of Planet Hastings are a distant memory so could see this power pair fail to make the top 8.
12) WE'AR THE LADS - John Moore & Dave Donnelly. On paper a strong pairing. Whether they can cut it when the pressure is on is questionable. I think they may do well.
13) WEIR BIN YO FROM - Owen Johnson & Paul Johnson. The Midlands captain has a decent record in matchplay and if Johnson Jr can keep his head when the matches hot up and doesn't have one of his traditional rants at Johnson Sr then they have a chance of not coming last. If it all kicks off during a match then they may as well concede the points straightaway.
14) OXBRIDGE MORONS - Michael Smith & James Rutherford. After a poor showing by both players in last years event (with different partners) this pairing has the gentle whiff of desperation as the current top 2 players in the UK team up to try and banish the painful memories of 2011. I fear that the only thing that will drown out the desperation in these two will be the tears and tantrums as 2012 proves to be yet another nail in the Doubles coffin of Rutherford and Smith. Or they might just win it.
15) THE SNOOZE BROTHERS - Alan Norman & Gareth Holmes. The name is back but with a different line-up for 2012. Norman is a dogged player and if Holmes can cope with the sun and heat then they might do quite well. Their slow play could be their main weapon as the matches drag on in the Midlands sun.
16) REAL ALE MADRID - Jam Trubridge & Rob Dodd. Possibly the best name in the field and with Trubridge they have a proven winner on the doubles circuit (2009 Champion with McIver). Dodd has been MIA on the circuit for a while so it will be a tough ask to see them push into the top half of the event. Their name is ultimately a lot better than they are.
As for who will win? Impossible to call even once the draw is done. Whatever the draw, looking at the pairings above I could safely predict 7 teams who won't win but can't pick a winner overall.
But what's the point in being a predictor who cant predict (you know who you are Sandra Meg). So here we go:
4th - May the Force Be With Who
3rd - Oxbridge Morons
2nd - Booze Brothers
1st - Jiff-Free
And that's your lot for now. Until then, in the words of the new Midlands Captain, Johnson Sr,
Tararrabit.
PP.
THE MIDLANDS OPEN
Saturday sees the Midlands Open once again taking place at the Four Ashes Golf Centre in Dorridge, near Solihull.
Having looked at the confirmed entrants (here) it would appear that the pre-tournament favourite, Chris Harding, isn't listed. Surely the Midlands Master won't miss the one event that the Midlands club actually manage to pull together each season?
If he does play then you'd be a fool to bet against anything other than a Harding win... which is why i'm going for The Rocket, James Rutherford to take the title. It will be close (it always is when you are limited to 12 holes a round) and from the list of entrants I would expect Smith Jr, Homer and Chitty (back for the first event for a long time) to be close to the newly crowned King Of The European Championship.
I've also noticed that there's no Chapman in the line up although he and Who are listed for the Doubles - perhaps he will be paraded into the course on the shoulders of his minions - the survivors from the recent Porto outing? If he plays then he should do OK. Another missing name is Seth Thomas, down for the Doubles so surely he's likely to play in the Open as well? He should. After gate crashing the Kent Open last year and walking off with the title on the KMGC's home patch this could well become a habit of Mr Orange on the BMGA tour.
Outside bet for the MO? How about the Fist, Londons very own Brad Shepherd or maybe even the lesser Gottfried? Surely one day Squire will triumph in a tournament with more than 2 people playing?
And then of course there's the mighty Praggers. Alex "Perfect Par" Pragnell to give him his full title. Mr Consistently inconsistent. Go on Alex, prove the Putting Predictor wrong and bag your first top ten finish. Somehow I wont be holding my anonymous breath on this one...
Part 2 to follow soon focussing on the main event of the weekend, the British Doubles Championship.
PP.
